This article was originally written in August 2024. The market dynamics remain relevant as context for the current situation.
Olive oil — often called "liquid gold" — is an essential ingredient in kitchens worldwide and a cornerstone of Mediterranean cuisine. Prized for its rich flavour, versatility and many health benefits, olive oil has long been the favourite cooking and finishing fat of millions of people. Yet a series of recent developments has cast a shadow over the future of olive oil production and availability. Europe — and the Mediterranean in particular — is grappling with extreme weather, which has led to a sharp rise in olive oil prices. In this article we look at the causes of that price rise, the consequences for everyone involved, and how the culinary world is adapting to this new reality.
The Climate Crisis and Olive Oil Production
Unprecedented Weather Conditions
The Mediterranean climate — with its mild, wet winters and hot, dry summers — has always been ideal for growing olives. In recent years, however, weather patterns have shifted drastically. The summer of 2024 was the hottest ever recorded, accompanied by prolonged droughts and erratic weather events. These extreme conditions have had devastating effects on olive groves in the main producing countries: Spain, Italy and Greece.
Drought puts olive trees under severe stress, leading to less flowering and fruit set and therefore lower yields. In some areas the drought was so severe that it threatened the survival of the trees themselves. On top of that, sudden changes in the weather — an unexpected night frost or heavy downpours — can damage the delicate flowers and young olives and put production under further pressure.
Impact on Harvest Yields
The combination of heat and drought has led to a significant fall in olive oil production. Spain, the world's largest olive oil producer, reported harvest yields halved in some regions. Similar trends were seen in Italy and Greece, where farmers are struggling to protect their groves from the climate. The result: the supply of olive oil is falling, competition for the available stock is increasing, and prices are rising.
Economic Consequences: Soaring Prices
Rising Costs for Producers
The difficult growing conditions have not only affected the quantity of olives harvested, they have also pushed up production costs. Farmers are investing more in irrigation, crop protection and other measures to protect their harvest. These extra costs are passed on to the consumer and contribute to the overall price rise.
In Spain, the price of olive oil rose by as much as 115% in a short period, leading to hoarding and shortages in supermarkets. There were reports of shoplifting and black-market trading as consumers and businesses desperately searched for supplies. This price explosion puts pressure on producers and consumers alike — and hits small-scale farmers hardest, as they usually have smaller financial buffers to adapt.
Consequences for Consumers
For consumers, the price rise is immediately noticeable at the till. Olive oil, once an affordable staple in many households, is in danger of becoming a luxury for some. This shift is prompting consumers to rethink their shopping habits and look for alternatives that are less sensitive to climate-related price fluctuations. The economic impact is not limited to individual households — restaurants, food manufacturers and other businesses that rely heavily on olive oil as a basic ingredient are feeling the pressure too.
Culinary Adaptations: Dealing with the Crisis
Alternative Fats and Oils
As olive oil prices keep rising, chefs, home cooks and food manufacturers are exploring alternatives to reduce their dependence on this increasingly expensive ingredient. Sunflower oil, rapeseed oil and avocado oil are being considered as substitutes. Although these oils cannot exactly match the flavour profile of olive oil, they offer similar cooking properties and can be used in a variety of culinary applications.
Some chefs are also returning to traditional cooking techniques that require less oil, such as poaching, steaming and slow cooking. These methods bring out the best in the natural flavours of ingredients without using large amounts of oil.
Olive Oil as a Finishing Touch
Despite the high prices, many cooks still value olive oil for its unique flavour and health benefits. Instead of using olive oil as a basic cooking fat, some reserve it for finishing dishes — a drizzle of high-quality extra virgin olive oil over a salad, soup or grilled vegetables adds richness and complexity and lets the oil really shine.
Sustainability and Resilience
The olive oil crisis is also driving the transition to more sustainable and resilient farming practices. Farmers are exploring methods such as dry farming, which depends less on irrigation, and switching to olive varieties that are better able to withstand drought and disease. Some producers are turning to precision agriculture and smart irrigation systems to optimise water use. Others are diversifying their range with flavoured oils, olive-based cosmetics or artisanal products made from olive wood. All these initiatives not only help support the business, they also raise awareness of the importance of sustainable olive oil production.
The olive oil crisis reflects the broader challenges that climate change poses for agriculture. It also highlights the resilience of the olive oil sector and the cultural significance of this much-loved ingredient. By supporting artisanally produced olive oil — directly from small producers — consumers can contribute to a sustainable future for the sector.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are olive oil prices expected to keep rising?
Unfortunately, the long-term trend points that way. As long as climate change causes persistent droughts and extreme heat in the Mediterranean, the pressure on production will remain. Even so, good harvest years — such as a wet winter at the right moment — can bring temporary relief. Market analysts expect prices to remain volatile: periods of high prices will alternate with shorter recovery periods, depending on the weather. The lesson for consumers: buy directly from producers where possible, or on the basis of quality, not price alone.
Why are small producers sometimes more affordable than expected?
Small, artisanal producers such as those in Puglia work without middlemen. They sell their oil directly to the consumer, cutting out the margins of distributors, importers and supermarket chains. The result: a higher-quality product — freshly pressed, from the latest harvest, with higher polyphenol levels — that per litre is sometimes cheaper than unbranded supermarket oil of unclear origin. The higher price per bottle then comes with better value for money.
How can you spot poor-value olive oil at a high price?
Unfortunately, a high price does not guarantee high quality. Watch out for these warning signs: no harvest date on the label (good producers always state the harvest), a vague indication of origin such as "EU blend" or "from various countries", a colour that's too pale and a neutral smell (real extra virgin olive oil has a fruity aroma and a characteristic sting in the throat), and a missing certificate or quality label. Producers who take the trouble to communicate their terroir, harvest time and processing transparently generally offer considerably better value for your money.
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